To Pardon Or Not To Pardon Part 4: Conspiracy Theories From Outer Space

There are many theories, or should we call them conspiracy theories, regarding Najib's pardon appeal. There are too many to list, but here are a few:-

(1) If Najib is released, he could become a political threat to the unity government.

(2) Once released, he would challenge the post of UMNO presidency, putting Zahid and ultimately the PH Unity Government at risk;

(3) Or, he might join PN and strengthen PN's challenge for the crucial Malay votes in the next election;

(4) The Yang di-Pertuan Agong wanted to give full royal pardon but was objected to by the Attoney General and the Federal Territory Minister.

Let's analyze each of the above:-

Najib as a political force.

We should not forget, UMNO had been the ruling government since independence in 1957, a total of 61 years continuously. It went down in GE14 in 2018. Najib was UMNO's last prime minister proving he, or UMNO, was not invincible at all. Nonetheless, Najib star shone again during the state elections of Malacca in 2021 (when Barisan Nasional won 15 out of 28 seats) or in Johor state election in 2022 when Barisan Nasional won 40 out of 56 seats. In both elections, Najib played a prominent role. Was it a fluke, or was it because of Najib? Because Barisan National lost all Malaccan parliamentary seats in the 2022 general election. In fact, Barisan Nasional which won 38% of popular votes during the state election, saw their popular votes shrunk to 28% during the parliamentary election. The same thing happened in Johor, Barisan Nasional won 43% of popular votes during the state election but saw their popularity halved to 23% during the parliamentary election.

Risk To Zahid

Zahid is probably one of the most unpopular UMNO presidents ever. Should Najib be pardoned and challenge Zahid for the UMNO presidency, the result will be crystal clear. Najib would win hands-down.

Najib Joining Perikatan Nasional

There is bad blood between Najib and Muhyddin, the chairman of Perikatan Nasional. Muhyddin was the Deputy Prime Minister when he was sacked by Najib in 2015. A month before, Najib sacked Muhyddin from UMNO. Muhyddin then was UMNO deputy president.

Full Royal Pardon Objected

Clause (1) Article 42 of the Federal Constitution says The Yang di-Pertuan Agong has power to grant pardons, reprieves and respites in respect of all offences which have been tried by court-martial and all offences committed in the Federal Territories of Kuala Lumpur and Labuan. Further, three members of the Pardon Board are appointed by The Yang di-Pertuan Agong. There goes the argument that The Yang di-Pertuan Agong wanted to give a full royal pardon but was objected by the AG and the Minister for Federral Territory. Of course, The Yang di-Pertuan Agong will take into consideration advices or public sentiments. My humble thought, The Yang di-Pertuan Agong, made the decision based on advices and public sentiments.

Finally, it must be remembered that pardons, if granted, are not subject to judicial review. Finally, like they say, we must move on. Lest we forget, even if Najib was pardoned he would have two or more cases to answer to. It is better for him to wait until all the cases are settled before asking for pardon. Unless he believed the Pardon Board would grant him mercy like what Gerald Ford did to Nixon; "a full, free, and absolute pardon"

To Pardon Or Not To Pardon Part 1

To Pardon Or Not To Pardon Part 2

To Pardon Or Not To Pardon Part 3